\begin{tikzpicture}[auto]
\tikzstyle{node} = [circle, draw,text width=4.5em, text badly centered, node distance=3cm, inner sep=0pt]
\node [node] (node0) {Stagnant market};
\node [node,above left of=node0,yshift=1cm] (node1) {Bull market};
\node [node,above right of=node0,yshift=1cm] (node2) {Bear market};
\path (node0) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] { 0.25} (node1);
\path (node1.south east) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5,below left] { 0.025} (node0);
\path (node1) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] { 0.075} (node2);
\path (node2) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] { 0.05} (node0);
\path (node2) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [above,pos=0.5] {0.15} (node1);
\path (node2.south west) edge [bend right,<-,thick] node [pos=0.5,below right] {0.25} (node0);
\path (node0) edge [loop below,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] {0.5} (node0);
\path (node1) edge [loop left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] {0.9} (node1);
\path (node2) edge [loop right,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] {0.8} (node2);
\end{tikzpicture}